Conspiracy theory theories: July 20, 1969
I almost can’t believe yesterday marked the 50th anniversary of Armstrong and Aldrin touching down on the moon’s surface. What’s more unbelievable to me is that there are a number of people who entirely refuse that it ever happened.
#60 – Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success
“We don’t want [people] to be afraid of the bad outcomes. . .because we would like people to be innovative and push against the status quo because that’s how we move forward as a society, as a business, as an individual.” — Annie Duke
#56 – Jocko Willink, retired Navy SEAL, Part II of II: Sleep, fasting, raising kids, discipline, taking ownership, and the impact of war
“Leading a family is the same way you lead an organization or lead a team. If you bark orders at your team, your team won’t like you, they won’t respect you, and they’re not going to carry out those orders with any sort of commitment.” — Jocko Willink
#55 – Jocko Willink, retired Navy SEAL, Part I of II: objective, strategy & tactics, leadership, protocols, dealing with death, and applying the many lessons learned from war
“Humility is the most important attribute or characteristic for a leader to have.” — Jocko Willink
Driving while distracted
Whether you drive an automatic or manual, here’s a game of driving that I like to play in order to stay hypervigilant, and I encourage you to play it: Imagine that someone on the road is trying to kill you today.
Thinking in bets
The point is: how was the decision made with the information at hand?
Predicting the future
As Carl Jacobi, a German mathematician was fond of saying, “Invert, always invert.”
How to make better decisions
Ironically, this might be my confirmation bias talking, but in my interview with Sid Mukherjee, he referred to Bayesian logic as perhaps one of the great neglected ideas in medicine, and in the world in general.
Dunning, Kruger, and the opioid epidemic
I can’t believe I just found about the Dunning-Kruger effect. In a nutshell, it’s the cognitive bias of illusory superiority that comes from our inability to recognize our lack of ability. It might actually explain much of the Twittersphere.