How to Make Better Decisions: Understanding Bias vs. Noise
Bias is important, but so is noise.
#154 – Steve Levitt, Ph.D.: A rogue economist’s view on climate change, mental health, the ethics of experiments, and more
“What economists do now is they’re asked not just to estimate parameters really well, but to embed those parameters into models, which then have enough degrees of freedom that you can start to imagine: if I turn this dial to that dial, what would happen?” —Steve Levitt
The importance of red teams
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” —Richard Feynman
#60 – Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success
“We don’t want [people] to be afraid of the bad outcomes. . .because we would like people to be innovative and push against the status quo because that’s how we move forward as a society, as a business, as an individual.” — Annie Duke
#49 – Matthew Walker, Ph.D., on sleep – Part III of III: The penetrating effects of poor sleep from metabolism to performance to genetics, and the impact of caffeine, alcohol, THC, and CBD on sleep
“Lack of sleep is like a broken water pipe in your home. It will leak down into every nook and cranny of your physiology.” —Matthew Walker
#37 – Zubin Damania, M.D.: Revolutionizing healthcare one hilariously inspiring video at a time
“The idea that you can optimize a particular regiment to the goals of that unique patient is the foundation of what we call Health 3.0.” —Zubin Damania
Thinking in bets
The point is: how was the decision made with the information at hand?
How to make better decisions
Ironically, this might be my confirmation bias talking, but in my interview with Sid Mukherjee, he referred to Bayesian logic as perhaps one of the great neglected ideas in medicine, and in the world in general.
Alzheimer’s prevention and the most important thing
So ironically, while Marks applies these insights to financial investments, many of the same principles apply to the way we should treat our health.