How to Make Better Decisions: Understanding Bias vs. Noise
Bias is important, but so is noise.
The importance of red teams
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” —Richard Feynman
#103 – Looking back on the first 99 episodes: Strong Convictions, Loosely Held
“I reserve metformin prescriptions for patients who obviously are in need of it from the standpoint of glucose and insulin regulation, but I don’t view it really as a pro longevity agent yet.” — Peter Attia
The pleasure of finding things out
Why do those last few “O”s in a bowl of Cheerios tend to clump together in the middle of the bowl or around the edges?
Am I fooling myself?
This story serves to remind me that we are not wired to think scientifically. Full stop. It is the quintessential human flaw. But scientific thinking is a skill to be practiced and improved upon.
#73 – AMA #9: NAD & metformin, fat-burning zone, creatine, estrogenization of men, emergency kit for cold & flu, and more
“The sky is blue, and the trees are green; therefore, I should eat cyanide.” — Peter Attia on the type of brilliant logic people use to suggest you burn more calories while sleeping vs. exercising
#60 – Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply ‘backcasting’ to boost your odds for future success
“We don’t want [people] to be afraid of the bad outcomes. . .because we would like people to be innovative and push against the status quo because that’s how we move forward as a society, as a business, as an individual.” — Annie Duke
Predicting the future
As Carl Jacobi, a German mathematician was fond of saying, “Invert, always invert.”
Grit
What do passion, persistence, and deliberate practice have to do with our health?